WEEX 唯客博客， 作者：杜玉，Foresight News 鮑威爾意在強調，首先，美聯儲官員作出任何降息決策都會感覺當前的經濟形勢和數據而定，而目前通脹和就業的兩大使命之間風險達到均衡，所以是時候開啟降息以提振勞動力市場了。 第二，美聯儲將逐次會議做出決策，不會受到市場對降息預期定價的影響，也不會考慮任何政治因素和議題，而是用「對當時合適的速度或快或慢地採取行動」。 第三，鮑威爾不認為大幅降息說明美國經濟衰退臨近，也不說明就業市場瀕臨崩潰的邊緣，降息更多是一種預防性質的行動，目的是保持住經濟和勞動力市場「穩健」的現狀。 第四，他承認非農就業可能下修，但依舊是個值得參考的重要數據點，其他美聯儲關注的勞動力數據還包括：失業率、就業率、工資增長、職位空缺與失業人數的比值、辭職率等多項指標： 重點是，「問題不在於具體數字的水平幾何」，而是在過去幾個月情況發生了變化，美國通脹的上行風險確實在下降，就業的下行風險增加，所以現在美聯儲出手調整政策立場支持就業。 以下為華爾街見聞整理的鮑威爾 9 月 FOMC 大幅降息後記者會問答環節全記錄： 問題 1：Strong third quarter GDP running 3% so what changed to made the committee go 50. Andhow do you respond to the concerns that perhaps it shows the Fed is more concerned about the labor market, and I guess should we expect more 50s in the months ahead? And based on what should we make that call? 第三季度美國 GDP 預計強勁增長 3%，那麼是什麼變化讓美聯儲決定降息 50 個基點？這是否可能表明美聯儲更擔心勞動力市場，未來也會繼續每次降息 50 個基點？我們應該根據什麼做出這一判斷？ 回答 1： Let me jump in. So since the last meeting, we have had a lot of data come in. We’ve had the two employment reports July and August. We’ve also had two inflation reports, including one that came in during blackout. We had the QCW report, which suggests that the payroll report numbers that we’re getting may be artificially high and will be revised down. You know that we’ve also seen that anecdotal data like the Beige Book, so we took all of those, and we went into blackout, and we thought about what to do, and we cleared that this was the right thing for the economy, for the people that we serve, and that’s how we made our decision. So that’s one question. 自上次會議以來，我們收到了很多數據，有 7 月和 8 月的兩份非農就業報告，還有兩份通脹報告，其中一份是在美聯儲官員靜默期內發布的。還有 QCW 報告表明我們非農新增就業數可能被人為抬高，將會被下調。我們也看到了像美聯儲褐皮書這樣的軼事數據，所以我們收集了所有這些數據，然後進入公開發言的靜默期，我們思考該怎麼做，並明確了這對經濟、對我們服務的美國人民來說是正確的，這就是我們做出決定的方式。 So a couple things, a good place to start is the SEP. But let me start with what I said, which was that we’re going to be making decisions, meeting by meeting, based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, the balance of risks. If you look at the SEP, you’ll see that it’s a process of recalibrating our policy stance, away from where we had a year ago, when inflation was high and unemployment low, to a place that’s more appropriate given where we are now and where we expect to be. And that process will take place over time. There’s nothing in the SEP that suggests the committee is in a rush to get this done. This this process evolves over time. （對於未來利率路徑的判斷），一個好的起點是看經濟預測摘要 SEP。首先，我們將根據收到的數據、不斷變化的前景和風險平衡，在逐次會議上做出決定。看看 SEP 你會發現，這是一個重新校準我們政策立場的過程，遠離一年前通脹高 + 失業率低的立場，轉向一個更適合當前情況和我們預期的立場。這個過程將隨著時間的推移而發生。SEP 中沒有任何內容表明委員會急於完成（降息）這項工作，這個過程是隨著時間的推移而發展的。 Of course, that’s a projection. That’s a baseline projection. We know, as I mentioned in my remarks, that the actual things that we do will depend on the way the economy evolves. We can go quicker, if that’s appropriate, we can go slower if that’s appropriate. We can pause if that’s appropriate. But that’s what we’re contemplating. Again, I would point you to the SEP as just an assessment of where, what the committee is thinking today, but the individual members, rather, of the committee, are thinking today, assuming that their particular forecasts take, you know, are realized. 當然，這只是一個預測。這是一個基線預測。正如我在發言中提到的，我們實際做的事情將取決於經濟的發展方式。如果合適，我們可以加快（降息）速度，如果合適，我們可以放慢速度。如果合適，我們可以暫停。但這就是我們正在考慮的。再次，我想指出，SEP 只是對委員會今天的想法的評估，而且是委員會的各位成員今天的想法，假設他們特定的預測得以實現。 問題 2: The projections show that the Fed officials expect the Fed funds rate to still be above their estimate of long run neutral by the end of next year. So does that suggest you see rates as restrictive for that entire period? Does that threaten the weakening of the job market you said you’d like to avoid, or does it suggest that maybe people see the short run neutral as a little bit higher? 預測顯示，美聯儲官員預計到明年年底聯邦基金利率仍將高於他們對長期中性利率的估計。那麼這是否意味著您認為利率在整個時期內都是有限制性的？這是否威脅到您所說希望避免的就業市場疲軟，是否也意味著人們可能認為短期中性利率會略高一些？ 回答 2：: I would really characterize it as this. I think people write down their estimate. Individuals do. I think every single person on the committee, if you ask them, what’s your level of certainty around that, and they would say there’s a wide range where that could fall. So I think we don’t know there are model based approaches and empirically based approaches that estimate what the neutral rate will be at any given time. But realistically, we know it by its works. So that leaves us in a place where we’ll be, where we expect, in the base case, to be continuing to remove restriction, and we’ll be looking at the way the economy reacts to that, and that will be guiding us in our thinking about the question that we’re asking at every meeting, which is, is our policy stance the appropriate one? 我真的會這樣描述它。這是委員會每個官員個人的預估值，如果你問他們對此的確定程度如何，他們會說，這個範圍可能很大。所以我認為我們不知道是否有基於模型的方法和基於經驗的方法可以估計任何給定時間的中性利率。但實際上，我們通過它的工作原理來了解它。因此，在基本場景下，我們預計會繼續放鬆貨幣政策，我們將關注經濟對此的反應，這將指導我們思考在每次會議上提出的問題，即我們的政策立場是否合適？ We know, if you go back, we know that the policy stance we adopted in July of 2023 came at a time when unemployment was three and a half percent and inflation was 4.2%. Today, unemployment is up to 4.2%, inflation is down to a few tenths above 2%, so we know that it is time to recalibrate our policy to Something that is more appropriate given the progress on inflation and on employment moving to a more sustainable level. So the balance of risks are now even, and this is the beginning of that process I mentioned, the direction of which is toward a sense of neutral, and we’ll move as fast or as slow as we think is appropriate in real time, what you have is our individual accumulation of individual estimates of what that will be in the base case. 我們知道，如果回顧一下，我們會發現在 2023 年 7 月採取的政策立場是在失業率為 3.5% 和通脹率為 4.2% 時採取的。如今，失業率已升至 4.2%，通脹率降至更接近 2%，因此我們知道，鑒於通脹和就業向更可持續水平邁進的進展，現在是時候重新調整我們的政策，使其更合適。因此，風險平衡現在已均衡，這是我提到的那個過程的開始，其方向是朝著中立的方向發展，我們將根據我們認為對當時合適的速度或快或慢地採取行動，點陣圖是聯儲官員對基本場景的個人估計值。 問題 3：How close was this in terms of the decision, you do have the first dissent by a governor since 2005 I think was the weight clearly in favor of a 50, or was this a very close decision? 這是自 2005 年以來第一次有聯儲理事提出異議，降息 50 個基點的共識意見有多少？ 回答 3： I think we had a good discussion. You know, if you go back, I talked about this at Jackson Hole, but I didn’t address the question of the size of the cut. And I think we left it open going into blackout. And so there was a lot of discussion back and forth. Good diversity of division. Excellent discussion today. I think there was also broad support for the decision that the committee voted on. So I would add, though, look at the SEP all 19 of the participants wrote down multiple cuts this year, all 19. That’s a big change from June, right? 17 of the 19 wrote down three or more cuts, and 10 of the 19 wrote down four more cuts. So, you know, there is a dissent, and there’s a range of views, but there’s actually a lot of common ground as well. 我認為我們進行了很好的討論。我在傑克遜霍爾談到了這個問題，但我沒有回答降息幅度的問題。我認為我們在靜默期之前沒有解決這個問題。因此，我們進行了大量的討論。觀點有多樣性很好。今天的討論非常精彩。我認為委員會投票通過的決定也得到了廣泛的支持。我想補充一點，看看 SEP，所有 19 名參與者支持今年多次降息，這與 6 月份相比有很大變化，19 人中有 17 人支持今年降息 3 次或更多，有 10 人支持 4 次以上的降息。所以，存在不同意見，也有各種觀點，但實際上也有很多共同點。 問題 4： on the pacing here, would you expect this to be running every other meeting? 按照這樣的節奏，您是否認為每隔一次會議都會進行這樣（大幅降息）的討論？ 回答 4：Once we get into next year, we’re going to take it meeting by meeting, as I mentioned, we would. There’s no sense that the committee feels it’s in a rush to do this. We made a good, strong start to this. And that’s really, frankly, a sign of our confidence, confidence in inflation is coming down toward 2% on a sustainable basis. That gives us the ability we can, you know, make a good, strong start. But, and I’m very pleased that we did to me the logic of this, both from an economic standpoint and also from a risk management standpoint, was clear, but I think we’re going to go carefully mee…
